Bull or Bear... Should You Care?

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In these uncertain times it is often difficult to know when to increase or reduce your exposure to the broad markets. Market timing is an extremely difficult task, at best. At Hillsdale, we do not believe that market timing is a winning formula over the long haul. Hence, we have designed our investment products to cover the spectrum of possible market outcomes within a fixed risk budget.

  • Our long-only "Performance" funds offer full market exposure and thus provide a "market-relative" risk/return profile. Their objective is to produce superior returns vs. their benchmark with equivalent or less risk.
  • On the other end of the spectrum, our "Market Neutral" line is designed as a pure diversifier, with a targetted correlation of 0% versus traditional equity returns regardless of market environment or direction. This product targets a return equal to TBills + 4-6%, with volatility equivalent to long bonds.
  • For those who want to reduce existing equity exposure or are currently uncertain as to whether the markets are going to continue upwards, our Aggressive Hedged Equity line provides an opportunity to keep pace with the market while offering some downside protection. With an average exposure to the market of 50%, the return profile has market relative characteristics, however, with a full time program of short selling of between 20-40%, you can expect to receive downside protection should the markets move down.
Below is a chart and graphical depiction of how our products have performed during Bear and Bull market. (A pdf document is also attached for your use)


Canadian Bull & Bear Market Analysis
Since Fund Inception to June 2004

Hillsdale Canadian Performance Equity Fund (Inception date Jan. 1/96)

Bear Markets Avg. Mthly
Return
Apr 98
Aug 98
Aug 00
Sep 02
Hillsdale CPE -2.02% -23.30% -0.55%
S&P/TSX Composite -4.07% -27.84% -45.05%
S&P/TSX Small Cap* -3.24% -30.01% -16.81%
* TSE 200 From Dec. 1995 to Dec. 2002, S&P/TSX Small Cap Index thereafter
Bull Markets Avg. Mthly Return Dec 95
Apr 98
Aug 98
Aug 00
Sep 02
Jun 04
Hillsdale CPE 4.30% 91.45% 109.50% 65.81%
S&P/TSX Composite 3.86% 62.62% 103.37% 38.26%
S&P/TSX Sm. Cap* 3.75% 66.54% 71.79% 38.38%

Hillsdale Canadian Aggressive Hedged Equity Fund (Inception date Jan. 31/00)

Bear Markets Avg. Mthly
Return
Mar 00
May 00
Aug 00
Sep 02
Hillsdale CAH -0.68% 1.27% 14.22%
S&P/TSX Composite -4.06% -2.22% -45.05%
Bull Markets Avg. Mthly Return Jan 00
Mar 00
May 00
Aug 00
Sep 02
Jun 04
Hillsdale CAH 3.00% 6.80% 15.87% 30.11%
S&P/TSX Composite 3.73% 11.57% 21.57% 38.26%

Hillsdale Canadian Market Neutral Equity Fund (Inception date May 1/00)

Bear Markets Avg. Mthly
Return
Apr 00
May 00
Aug 00
Sep 02
Hillsdale CMN -0.62% -2.24% 6.12%
S&P/TSX Composite -4.06% -1.02% -45.05%
Bull Markets Avg. Mthly Return May 00
Aug 00
Sep 02
Jun 04
Hillsdale CMN 2.97% 14.49% -1.55%
S&P/TSX Composite 3.58% 21.57% 38.26%
Notes:
  • Bear markets are defined as periods when the benchmark begins to fall from it's highest point (the Peak) to its lowest point (the Valley) before beginning to climb to the next peak. Bull markets are defined as the periods from Valley to Peak.
  • Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns.
  • Return numbers are net of all fees and expenses.


© Copyright 2004, Hillsdale Investment Management