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By JUSTIN LAHART
Canadians joke that their country can be a bit boring (in a nice sort of way, of course). Its
stock market, at least, isn't.
Shares of energy and basic-materials companies, which have been buoyed by higher prices
for oil and other commodities, represent more than a third of the total value of the Toronto
Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite. Another third: financial-company shares, which have
been lifted by still-low global interest rates.
The result: the TSX composite is up 50% during the past two years. Factor in the strength of
the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart and the index has risen 83% in U.S. dollar
terms.
But for the most part, even internationally minded U.S. investors haven't taken part in the
rally. The main benchmark followed by international mutual funds aimed at developed
markets is the Morgan Stanley International EAFE index. It includes markets in Europe,
Australasia and the Far East -- but not Canada. A typical response from international fund
managers is that putting money in Canada is really the job of their firms' U.S. managers.
(Insert 51st state joke here.)
But the benchmarks that U.S. portfolio managers are trying to beat typically are comprised
wholly of U.S. stocks. A big bet on Canada gone awry could put a fund well behind its peers,
and there goes the year-end bonus.
At this point, taking a big swing at Canadian stocks could easily end up being painful. The
Federal Reserve increasingly is worried about inflation, and that may mean the unusual
global economic combination of rising commodities prices and low interest rates is destined
to end. Canada's investing sweet spot could easily go sour. Even so, there may be
opportunities.
Not just mutual funds, but many hedge funds have shunned Canada. Arun Kaul, principal at
Toronto hedge fund Hillsdale Investment Management, reckons that the hedge-fund
presence in the Canadian stock market is between one-sixth and one-third of what it is in the
U.S. market. With less hedge-fund participation, there also is far less trading -- average
holding periods for Canadian stocks are nearly double that of their U.S. counterparts.
For investors who complain that the proliferation of U.S. hedge funds has made it hard to find
any good ideas, Canada might be worth a look. Plus, the doughnuts are better.
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